Using a whole-farm modelling approach to assess prospective technologies under uncertainty

New technologies may be adopted by farmers if they fit farmers’ resource endowments, objectives and goals, and attitudes towards risk. In this paper, the role of whole-farm modelling in technology evaluation is discussed. An assessment of prospective technology options for wheat and sugar beet in a study region in Iran is presented. Data on new technologies were collected from farmers of Fars province, staff of the Shiraz Branch of the Agricultural Research Centre, the Regional Branch of the Extension Organization, and from the Shiraz University’s Research Centre. An extension of utility efficient programming to non-linear discrete stochastic programming, was adopted to evaluate prospective technology options. Results of the study demonstrated the merits of the technique, and it was found that farmers’ total net revenue would increase considerably if adoption was to occur.     

Modelling land cover transitions: A solution to the problem of spatial dependence in data

Raster-based spatial land cover transition models (LCTMs) are widely used in landscape ecology. However, many LCTMs do not account for spatial dependence of the input data, which may artificially fragment the output spatial configuration. We demonstrate the consequences of ignoring spatial dependence, thus assigning probabilities randomly in space, using a simple LCTM. We ran the model from four different initial conditions with distinct spatial configurations and results indicated that, after 20 simulation steps, all of them converged towards the spatial configuration of the random data set. From an ecological perspective this is a serious problem because ecological data often exhibit distinct spatial configuration related to ecological processes. As a solution, we propose an approach (region approach) that accounts for spatial dependence of LCTM input data. Underlying spatial dependence was used to apply spatial bias to probability assignment within the model. As a case study we applied a region approach to a Vegetation Transition Model (VTM); a semi-Markovian model that simulates forest succession. The VTM was applied to approximately 500,000 ha of boreal forest in Ontario, at 1 ha pixel resolution. When the stochastic transition algorithms were applied without accounting for spatial dependence, spatial configuration of the output data became progressively more fragmented. When the VTM was applied using the region approach to account for spatial dependence output fragmentation was reduced. Accounting for spatial dependence in transition models will create more reliable output for analyzing spatial patterns and relating those patterns to ecological processes.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Soil water flow affects the rhizosphere distribution of a seed-borne biological control agent,Pseudomonas fluorescens

Four-day-old wheat seedling roots were inoculated at specific sites with 3.8 × 10⁵ colony forming units of Pseudomonas fluorescens strain 2–79 Rn₁₀ resistant to rifampin and naladixic acid. Seedlings inoculated at the root apex were transplanted into chambers containing non-sterile soil and harvested 5 h, 2, 4 and 7 days later. Root segments were excised and processed for dilution plating on a selective medium to determine the population distribution of the marked strain in relation to root elongation. Strain 2–79 RN₁₀ was recovered from a localized area near the point of inoculation but was no longer associated with the root apex by day 4. In a subsequent experiment, roots were inoculated approximately 4 cm above the root tip. Water applied to the soil surface and allowed to drain through the soil profile was found to affect the rhizosphere distribution of 2–79 Rn₁₀. The marked strain was recovered 3.5 cm below the point of inoculation after 24 h when water had been added, compared to 0.5 cm below the inoculation site in the absence of added water.     

大唼蜡甲人工大量饲养的主要影响因素及其控制

通过对从比利时引进的红脂大小蠹Dendroctonus valens捕食性天敌-大唼蜡甲Rhizophagus grandis Gyll.5年的室内大量饲养,对影响该天敌的产卵量、生长发育和羽化的主要生物因子和环境条件等进行了深入研究。对发现的影响其正常繁殖和生长发育的主要有害生物进行了外部形态、为害特点及控制进行了初步的研究,成虫平均羽化率从2003年的29.61%上升到了2004年的76.03%。研究表明,大唼蜡甲室内大量饲养的主要影响因子有:两种寄生螨(Proclaelapssp.和Histiostomasp.)、球孢白僵菌Beauveria bassiana、种群退化和温湿度条件。严格的卫生条件、病原生物的有效控制和种群复壮是保证大唼蜡甲群体饲养成功的关键。     

西藏色季拉山西藏红杉径向生长对气温和降水波动的响应

目的 基于色季拉山地区特有树种西藏红杉年轮样芯,研究西藏红杉径向生长对气温和降水量的波动响应。 方法 利用树木年代学的方法,结合TASP-Win及ARSTAN程序建立标准年表,采用Pearson及bootstrap的计算方式将年轮宽度指数与1961—2020年气温及降水分别进行相关分析。 结果 径向生长在气温波动前后存在较大的差异。在气温波动前西藏红杉与前一年8月,当年1月及6月平均气温呈正相关（P＜0.05）,与前一年9—10月及12月平均降水呈正相关,与前一年8月降水呈负相关,与1月至12月的相对湿度呈显著正相关（P＜0.01）。在气温发生波动后,与当年3—12月平均气温呈负相关,与前一年8月及当年6月降水为显著正相关。 结论 藏东南地区的气候条件极为特殊,气候的波动导致水热条件发生变化是限制西藏红杉径向生长的主要原因,在非生长季,气温短暂的变化对树木径向生长同样有着显著的影响。     

An evaluation of the structure and function of tropical homegardens

Homegardens represent land use systems involving deliberate management of multipurpose trees and shrubs in intimate association with annual and perennial agricultural crops and, invariably, livestock, within the compounds of individual houses, the whole crop-tree-animal unit being intensively managed by family labour. Known by different names in various places, these agroforestry systems are common in all ecological regions of the tropics and subtropics, especially in humid lowlands with high population density.An analysis of the structural and functional aspects of ten selected homegarden systems from different ecological and geographical regions shows that the average size of the homegarden units is less than 0·5 ha; yet they are composed of a large number of woody and herbaceous species, carefully structured to form 3–5 vertical canopy strata, with each component having a specific place, as well as function.Food production is the primary function of most homegardens, the vast majority of them being subsistence production systems. While there is a remarkable similarity among the different homegardens with respect to the type and nature of the herbaceous crops, the nature of woody perennials varies, depending on environmental and ecological factors. In general, most woody components produce fruits or other types of food in addition to other outputs such as fuelwood, timber, etc. These various food products provide a substantial proportion of nutritive and energy requirements of the local diet. Moreover, the species diversity and varying production cycles of the different components ensure continuous production throughout the year from the homegarden unit.Little or no research has been done to improve homegarden systems. Structural complexity, species diversity, multiple output nature, tremendous variability from farm to farm, etc., are some of the main characteristics that make the homegardens extremely difficult models to work with according to the currently available research procedures.     

森林火险中长期预测预报研究进展

概述了我国和美国、加拿大的森林火险中长期预测预报的理论和方法。国内研究大多建立在对历史火灾资料与气象资料进行统计分析研究的基础上, 预测结果多是定性的、间断性的。美国和加拿大则依托成熟的全国性森林火险等级系统, 结合气象局的中长期降水和温度预报, 给出各火险指数实时的一周尺度预报及每周1次的16周尺度的季节性预报。我国今后应加强森林火险的中长期预测预报研究, 要由单纯定性分析转向定量化研究, 由一般数理统计模型转向具有明显物理意义的数学物理模型。     

The threshold of successful attack by Ips typographus on Picea abies: A field experiment

The spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus, was induced to attack Norway spruce by means of pheromone dispensers. The degree of attack on each tree was recorded and the trees were later categorized as surviving or dying, according to the degree of sapwood blue-staining caused by the attacks. A threshold of successful attack was observed; i.e. above a certain number of attacks the trees were successfully invaded by the beetles and their mutualistic blue-stain fungi. The height of this threshold increased with increasing tree vigour, measured as the relative increment of the sapwood cross-sectional area.     

落叶松体细胞胚胎发生过程中DNA甲基化模式变化分析

通过MSAP技术检测落叶松体细胞胚胎发生过程中的DNA甲基化模式变化发现,体细胞胚胎发生的14个时期中,5'-CCGG-3'序列的胞嘧啶上发生重新甲基化事件最多在ABA诱导后的0.5～6h,最少在5～7d的早期单胚阶段;而去甲基化事件发生最多的是5～7d的早期单胚阶段,最少在14～21d的中期单胚到晚期单胚阶段.与原胚...